The dubious utility of delaying news of OBL’s demise…

Written by Ryan Crierie on Wednesday, May 4, 2011 at 10:08 pm

Apparently post-partisan bounce unity across the political divide in America lasts about four days. This means that if we make first contact with aliens, Washington DC will be all super fun for only about eight days.

But anyway, some people are critical over Obama revealing we got him so early, so fast.

They argue that Obama should have held onto the information for about 24-48 hours, so we could roll up some networks based on the information we got.

The problem with the premise of holding onto the information long enough to recycle it into actionable intelligence to kill someone important is the fact that Pakistan plays both sides in the GWOT.

OBL was found hiding inside a safehouse about 800 metres from the grounds of the Pakistani Military Academy; and the safehouse was owned by Hizbul Mujahedeen.

If you’ve never heard of them, don’t worry. Nobody really does, except for India.

Why?

Because the Hizbul Mujahedeen was created by the Pakistani ISI in 1989 to wage war on India inside Kashmir.

The Pakistani security forces secured the compound probably about 15-20 minutes after we lifted off.

They would have found:

1.) 20~ people all zip-tied in the middle of the compound or on the street, many of them OBL’s relatives.
2.) 3-4~ people inside in pools of their own blood with known links to OBL.
3.) Low grade circumstantial evidence that OBL was staying there that we missed (with just 40 minutes, we couldn’t take the place apart completely).
4.) A large pool of blood missing a body.

If the Pakistani security services were merely corrupt, the evidence that Bin Ladin was the target and that he was either seriously wounded or killed would leak relatively rapidly. Just look at how the Pakis already sold a bunch of holiday snaps of the dead guys to Reuters. Al Quaeda does monitor the internet, you know?

However, the fact that we found him in a compound owned by an ISI-created group moves them from the ‘corrupt’ category to the ‘actively aiding’ category.

Once it became obvious that the Emir was no longer amongst his fellows and had been removed by the Great Satan; elements within the ISI would have begun spreading the news amongst their own terror networks; and Al Quaeda would have gotten the message as well to go to ground and disperse.

Either way, I feel that sitting on the news would only have bought about 1-2 hours more of operationally valuable time to kill HVT’s — and that just isn’t enough time for our guys to land and begin the initial task of sifting through the information we got.

Categories: Live, Strategy

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