ODDR&E ASSESSMENT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM 17 APRIL 1961 PPD 61-33 ---------------- NIKE ZEUS BATTERY HAS A RANGE OF ABOUT 75-100 NM AGAINST LOW ARRIVAL RATE TARGETS --------------- NIKE ZEUS DEPLOYMENT COST BASED ON GO-AHEAD AND FIRST BATTERIES BEING OPERATIONAL IN FOUR YEARS FROM GO DATE: 4 BATTERIES: $1.2 BILLION 12 BATTERIES: 2.3 BILLION 30 BATTERIES: $4.3 BILLION 70 BATTERIES: $8 BILLION ---------- A STANDARD NIKE ZEUS TWO BATTERY CONFIGURATION CAN HANDLE SIX SIMULTANEOUS TARGETS ABOUT EVERY 30 SECONDS UNTIL IT'S MISSILES ARE EXPENDED. ------------- FIREPOWER LIMITATIONS OF NIKE ZEUS BATTERIES WOULD BE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED IF A CHEAP NONNUCLEAR MISSILE COULD BE DEVELOPED; IMPROVING THE RATIO OF COSTS TO THE ENEMY AND TO US FOR EACH ICBM KILLED. ------------ ARPA TERMINAL (ARPAT) ARPAT (from ARPA Terminal) is a terminal-defense system concept which was formulated in 1959 in an attempt to get around some of the problems of target identification that beset NIKE-ZEUS. During I960, twelve paper feasibility studies were conducted on critical elements of the ARPA concept. These study results -were sufficiently promising to warrant a more intensive feasibility investigation curing FY 1961 and 1962. Approximate cost of this program is $10 million through FY 1962. The ARPAT concept is based on the assumption that moderately heavy decoys (20-200 pounds) can be built which will defy discrimination, while light decoys (20 pounds or less) may not be discriminable until they descend to about 200,000 feet altitude. To counter a threat with many decoys, ARPAT would delay final weapon commitment until targets have reached 150,000-200,000 feet altitude, and employ interceptors which would be sufficiently inexpensive to justify attacks on all undiscriminated objects as a matter of doctrine. To accomplish the late final commitment, a large number (50-500) of small interceptors would be lofted to 100,000 feet altitude upon radar warning of an attack upon the area defended. These small interceptors (50-75 lbs.) would be assigned to undiscriminated targets by a specialized ground radar, and then proceed independently by homing on infrared emitted by the aero-dynamically-heated re-entry bodies. Kill would be accomplished by hyper-velocity impact of portions of the interceptor structure on the target. ARPAT, a terminal defense system like Zeus, could not be used to defend population against a fallout attack, and if deployed for population defense, should be paralleled by a fallout shelter program. Systems embodying the ARPAT concept appear (on the basis of the limited paper studies conducted so far) to be capable of defending localized targets against missiles accompanied by a few tens of heavy decoys. However, it may turn out that ARPAT would be inherently vulnerable to other types of counter measures. The FY 1961-1962 program has been planned to verify experimentally the critical new technology involved in the ARPAT concept as well as to estimate system cost, effectiveness, and vulnerability to enemy countermeasures. If this program turns out favorably, a decision made in 1963 to develop and deploy ARPAT could be accomplished by about 1970. The cost per city defended would be comparable to ZEUS projected costs. It may also turn out to be possible to integrate ARPAT and ZEUS at a cost not greatly exceeding, but with effectiveness higher, than either alone. ------------------- Consideration has been given to lofting large nuclear weapons to the vicinity of an incoming target cloud to melt or deflect balloons over the long path (200 miles or more) that elements of a single ICBM launch may easily fill. This has led to the invention of other midcourse decoys (for example "bird cages") which would survive a nuclear explosion at a range of ten miles or so; and would, to radar at least, be indistinguishable from a balloon.