Simplified Wargaming
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Options of Command by Trevor N. Dupuy
Brassey's Encyclopedia of Land Forces and Warfare by Franklin D. Margiotta
War Games by Thomas B. Allen
OutcomeBattle = PowerRed / PowerBlue
PowerRed = NumbersRed * VariablesRed * QualityRed
PowerBlue = NumbersBlue * VariablesBlue * QualityBlue
Where:
NumbersRed/Blue = Number of Troops on each side
VariablesRed/Blue = Variables in favor of each side. Usually fortifications, prepared fighting positions, etc.
QualityRed/Blue = Quality of troops on each side.
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EXAMPLE: The French Army (Red) encounters the Prussian Army (Blue) on the battlefield. The French Army consists of 4,000 veterans, while the Prussian Army has 3,000 green troops entrenched behind a stone wall. We define the stone wall entrenchment as having a variable modifier of 1.5, and the quality rating of green troops as 0.5, while veterans have a rating of 1.5. It results in this set of calculations: PowerRed = 4,000 * 1 * 1.5 = 6,000 PowerBlue = 3,000 * 1.5 * 0.5 = 2,250 6,000 / 2,250 = 2.66 The Outcome Ratio is 2.66 in favor of the French Army. They sweep the battlefield of the Prussians. |
Obviously, this simple formula only works if both sides are essentially evenly matched with the same types of equipment and practice roughly the same types of combat formations.
You can modify the QJM further to take into account even more factors; such as mixed types of troops. You could arbitrarily declare that a tank is worth 25 men, et cetera; or modify the Law further to take into account more variables.
PowerBlue/Red = Quantity * Quality * TLI * EffectivenessFortification
0.1 = African Militas / Typical Science Fiction Militaries (I'm looking at you, Star Trek)
0.5 = Green Troops
1.0 = Average Troops
1.2 = Crack Troops
1.5 = Elite Troops
TLI = ROF * Targets * Damage * Range * Accuracy * Reliability
Where:
ROF = Rate of Fire Per Minute
Targets = Targets hit with each attack. An anti-tank missile or AP round would have a Target of 1 against armor; while a High Explosive Fragmentation shell would have a Target of 10 against infantry.
Damage: Probability of destroying the target if it is hit.
Range: Effective range of the weapon in meters
Accuracy: Percentage of time the weapon actually hits it's target
Reliability: Percentage of time the weapon actually can fire.
TLI = [ ( ROF * Targets * Damage * Range * Accuracy * Reliability * MOF * ROA) + PF ] * RFE * FCE * ASE * WHT * AME * CL
Where:
ROF = Rate of Fire Per Minute
Targets = Targets hit with each attack. An anti-tank missile or AP round would have a Target of 1 against armor; while a High Explosive Fragmentation shell would have a Target of 10 against infantry.
Damage: Probability of destroying the target if it is hit.
Range: Effective range of the weapon in meters
Accuracy: Percentage of time the weapon actually hits it's target
Reliability: Percentage of time the weapon actually can fire.
MOF: Battlefield Mobility Factor
ROA: Radius of Action Factor
PF: Punishment Factor
RFE: Rapidity of Fire Effect (Armored Vehicles Only)
FCE: Fire Control Effect (Armored Vehicles Only)
ASE: Ammunition Supply Effect (Armored Vehicles Only)
WHT: Wheels/Halftrack Effect (Armored Vehicles Only)
AME: Amphibious Capability Effect (Armored Vehicles Only)
CL: Ceiling Effect (Aircraft Only)
0.15 * SQRT(Speed)
Speed is measured in km/h.
0.08 * SQRT(RoadRange)
Road Range is measured in kilometers.
(Weight / 2)3/2
Weight is measured in metric tons.
“Official” HERO TLIs(Divide by 5000 to get OLI at present battlefield dispersal levels) |
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Weapons System |
TLI |
Weapons System |
TLI |
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T-72 MBT |
4,885,000 |
M1 Abrams MBT |
4,920,000 |
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T-80 MBT |
6,460,000 |
M1A1 Abrams MBT |
5,245,000 |
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BMP-2 IFV |
2,070,000 |
M2 Bradley IFV |
2,670,000 |
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152mm 2S3 SPH |
1,080,000 |
M109A1/2/3 SPH |
1115000 |
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BM-21 Grad MRLS |
2,020,000 |
MRLS (227mm) |
1555000 |
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AK-47 Rifle |
950 |
M-16 Rifle Family |
1,850 (A1) |
1.0 = Attacking or Defending in the Open
1.3 = Fighting from a Hasty Position
1.5 = Fighting from a Prepared Position
1.6 = Fighting from a Fortified Position